Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
